The situation in January has changed, for some oils, with regards to the trend seen in recent months. In particular, tropical oils, palm, palm kernel and coconut have started the year with a significant correction in prices, after ending 2020 at multi-year highs. In addition, the spread between coconut and palm kernel oil has narrowed sharply, while seed oils, especially sunflower and rapeseed, have continued the upward trend that began in the second quarter of 2020. For sunflower, the price remains firm for the short term, even though some of the excess production of high oleic oil is going as conventional sunflower. The expectation is that we will reach September with very little oil.
Some of the factors to follow and which will have an impact on price evolution in the coming months are:
- Soybean production in South America
- Sunflower planting intentions in the Black Sea area
- Palm production in Asia
The oil situation remains tense in the short/medium term, as global stocks of oilseeds are at 5-year minimum levels, due to two consecutive harvests with a greater increase in consumption than in production.
The following chart shows the quotations of the main oils and their variation in the month of January (data from December 31 and February 3):
In order to better understand these and other topics, we invite you to download and continue reading LIPSA’s market report below, where you will be able to learn more about the following points:
- Evolution of reference markets
- Oil and USD
- Oilseeds and oils balance
- Palm oil
- Lauric fats
- Sunflower oil
- High oleic sunflower oil
- Soybean and rapeseed oils