Palm oil production and export supplies are increasing in Indonesia, Malaysia and Latin America. For oilseeds, the 2024/25 campaign year will mark the third consecutive year of global surplus, driven largely by rising soybean stocks.

In palm oil, according to Oil World, global CPO production will increase by 1.6 MnT, reaching 83.7 MnT in 2026. Despite the deteriorating age profile of palm trees due to insufficient replanting, current climatic conditions in Indonesia, which will determine production in 2026, have been largely favourable. In addition, production in Central and South America is likely to continue to recover in 2026.

In parallel, global palm oil consumption is expected to increase in 2025/26, driven by price discounts to soybean oil.

In sunflower, Romania and Bulgaria have received good rainfall and planting is finishing in favourable conditions. Spain continues with good prospects, while Hungary and France need rains, especially important for high oleic varieties. If weather conditions remain favourable, seed production should recover and comfortably exceed 10 MnT in the EU.

According to Oil World, assuming favourable weather conditions in the Black Sea region, the world supply of SFO is expected to be more abundant than that of RSO during the next season.

For rapeseed, global oil supply is expected to be 0.5 MnT lower than in the 2024/25 season, due to low stocks at the end of the current season. Therefore, we expect RSO to trade at a premium over SFO, SBO and CPO during the first half of next season.

For first-hand information on these and other aspects of the vegetable oil market, we invite you to download and read the LIPSA Market Report by clicking on the button above, where we cover the following points: