The availability of palm oil is good in the short term, mainly because we are in the peak seasonal production period. However, there is more uncertainty looking ahead to 2026. Leading vegetable oil market analysts Thomas Mielke and Dorab Mistry have been bullish on the price of palm oil for 2026.

In addition, uncertainty continues to surround the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), especially as the 30 December implementation date approaches. In October, the Commission proposed amendments and several Member States support a further 12-month extension, which is still being discussed without consensus being reached. If approved, which is unclear, it would be put to a vote in mid-December.

In the case of sunflower, there are additional crop losses in the Black Sea region, the main production area globally. There is a wide range of projections for Ukraine’s sunflower seed harvest, ranging from 10 to 12 MnT, but all analysts have lowered their forecasts over the last month. If this were to be the case, sunflower production in Ukraine in the 25/26 season would be the lowest in 10 years, and more than 20% below the average for the last three seasons. The chart below shows the oil equivalent estimate for this season and data from previous seasons:

Meanwhile, global rapeseed production has been revised upwards to well above last year’s level. In Canada, the harvest is almost complete and yields are much better than expected. As a result, global ending stocks for the 2025/26 season have risen to 9.7 MnT, more than 1 MnT above the level at the start of the 24/25 season. In both Canada and the EU, the ample availability of rapeseed and rapeseed oil suggests that prices could continue to face downward pressure.

If tensions between China and Canada ease, Canada’s projected surplus could decline, helping to support rapeseed prices. The current trade dispute has limited Canadian rapeseed exports to multi-year lows in October.
For coconut oil, the market is expected to shift from a situation of scarcity to adequate or abundant supply in 2026. In producing countries, consumption is gradually recovering, although the impact of recent typhoons in the Philippines could delay the recovery in production.

Coconut oil prices have eased somewhat in recent months, although they remain very high compared to recent years. Below is the evolution of the CIF Rotterdam price in 2025:

For first-hand information on these and other aspects of the vegetable oil market, we invite you to download and read the LIPSA Market Report by clicking on the button above, where we cover the following points: