Palm oil prices have continued their upward trend due to strong purchases by India, China and other countries, as well as renewed rumours about the implementation of B50 (mandatory addition of 50% palm oil to fossil diesel) in Indonesia in 2026.

The discount on palm oil compared to soybean oil and other oils has narrowed. The chart below shows the price trends over the last year for sunflower, rapeseed, soybean and palm oil in their respective reference markets:

However, given that production and export supply appear abundant for the remainder of the year, palm oil is likely to remain at a discount to other oils, leaving limited scope for further price increases.

On the other hand, with regard to sunflower, weather conditions in Ukraine have been very unfavourable in the eastern region, while some central areas were also affected by lack of rain and two heat waves until the end of July. Estimates vary widely, but we believe that, in the best-case scenario, production will only see moderate growth.

This graph shows a comparison of recent years and the forecast for the sunflower seed harvest in Ukraine and the initial stocks, which will be particularly low this season:

The upward trend in sunflower oil prices continued over the past month, mainly on the spot market, due to adverse weather conditions in parts of the EU and Ukraine, which are reducing production expectations. Strong palm oil and soybean oil prices have provided additional support.

By the end of September, we will have a clearer picture of actual yields in the EU, Russia and Ukraine. In the case of high-oleic sunflower, we are seeing tensions in immediate availability. In addition, the premium vs. conventional sunflower for the 2025/26 season has appreciated in recent weeks.

With regard to lauric oils, although coconut oil prices have fallen sharply to around USD 2,600/tonne in Rotterdam, prices for this oil remain extremely high.

A recovery in global coconut oil production and exports is expected in 2026. Prices could therefore fall, but the timing will depend mainly on consumer purchasing behaviour and producers’ willingness to sell in the short to medium term.

Strong prices have spread from CNO to palm kernel oil. Demand has been affected by high prices, but has benefited from the shortage of coconut oil.

For first-hand information on these and other aspects of the vegetable oil market, we invite you to download and read the LIPSA Market Report by clicking on the button above, where we cover the following points: